基于元建模的裂缝性气藏累计产量预测.pdfVIP

2013 4 PETROLEUM EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT Vol.40 No.2 215 文章编号：1000-0747(2013)02-0215-05 DOI: 10.11698/PED.2013.02.11 基于元建模的裂缝性气藏累计产量预测 Seifi A ，Kazemzadeh M B ，Mohammadi H （伊朗Amirkabir 科技大学工业工程系） 摘要：为了预测某裂缝性气藏在 18 年规划周期内的累计产量，建立了3 种元模型，并结合数值模拟累计产量预测结 果对各模型进行了验证和对比。估算了气藏的基本参数（孔隙度、渗透率及含水饱和度）并对气藏进行了数值模拟。 将气藏内某井 18 年内的累计产量表示为各气藏参数的函数，采用储量计算经验函数排除了研究空间内的低潜力点， 并基于最大熵准则选取25 个高潜力点作为设计点。建立了二次模型、乘性模型和 RBF 模型 3 种元模型，基于各模 型预测了25 个设计点和7 个试验点处的累计产量。预测结果表明：各模型均能比较准确地预测累计产量；RBF 模型 的累计产量预测准确性优于另外2 种模型；与数值模拟方法相比，元建模方法的计算时间大幅缩短。图4 表2 参 15 关键词：元建模；径向基函数；裂缝性气藏；产量预测 中图分类号：TE328 文献标识码：A 石油勘探与开发 Prediction of accumulated outflow from a fractured hydrocarbon reservoir using metamodeling Seifi A, Kazemzadeh M B, Mohammadi H (Department of Industrial Engineering , Amirkabir University of Technology , Tehran 15875-4413, Iran) Abstract: Three metamodels were established for predicting accumulated outflow from a fractured hydrocarbon reservoir over a planning horizon of 18 years, and the models were validated and compared using accumulated outflow predicted by numerical simulation. The reservoir was simulated and its basic parameters (porosity, permeability and water saturation) were estimated. The accumulated outflow over 18 years of a well in the reservoir was expressed as a function of the reservoir parameters. Low potential points were excluded using HIP (Hydrocarbon in Place) equation and 25 high potential points were chosen as design points using maximum entropy design. Three kinds of metamodels (quadratic model, multiplicative model and radial basis function model) were built and the accumulated outflows of 25 design points and 7 test points wer