城市精细天气预报的理论与技术研究进展.pdfVIP

Special 专题 城市精细天气预报的理论与技术研究进展 孙继松 （北京市气象台，北京 100089） 摘要：对最近二十多年，城市中尺度天气学和精细预报技术研究进展进行了回顾，包括以下几个方面：（1）城市环流 对中尺度降水系统的影响研究；（2）城市环流与地形相互作用的物理过程及其对中尺度系统的影响过程研究；（3）城 市环流与海（湖）风环流的相互作用对中尺度天气系统的影响过程研究；（4）城市或城市群对大雾形成与分布的影响 研究。最后，对未来城市精细天气预报技术的发展方向进行了展望，认为针对特大城市典型的中尺度天气系统开展精细 化观测研究，并将研究成果应用于中尺度模式物理过程的改进之中，进一步完善城市冠层模式，可能是提高城市精细化 预报能力的主要有效手段。 关键词：城市，中尺度天气学，精细天气预报 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2014.01.002 The Essential Theory and Technology on Accurate Urban Weather Forecast Sun Jisong (Beijing Meteorological Observatory, Beijing 100089) Abstract: This paper reviews the advances in urban meso-scale synoptic meteorology and accurate urban weather forecast technology in the last two decades. It embodies following aspects: (1) The researches on influence of urban circulation on meso- scale precipitation system; (2) The advances in physical process of interaction between urban circulation and topography, and influence of the interaction on meso-scale synoptic system; (3) The progress in the interaction between urban circulation and sea- land breeze, and its effect on meso-scale synoptic system; (4) The investigation on distribution and development of a big fog caused by urban or urban-group effect. Finally, the paper indicates the direction on accurate urban weather forecast technology, and figures that it is possibly an effectual technique to enhance the capability of accurate urban weather forecast so as to carry out an accurate observation research on typical metropolis. By using the above achievements, we may promote the physical process of meso-scale numerical mode and improve urban canopy mode (UCM). Keywords: urban, meso-scale synoptic meteorology, accurate forecast 1 引言