150 天韵律方法月内过程预测系统简介及应用检验.pdfVIP

气象科技 进展 150天韵律方法月内过程预测系统简介及应用检验 1 2 1 2 1 林纾 惠志红 郭俊琴 罗雪梅 杨苏华 （1 西北区域气候中心，兰州 730020；2 甘肃省气象信息与技术装备保障中心，兰州 730020） 摘要：给出150天韵律方法做延伸期预报的原理和检验办法，经检验2002—2012年间天气过程预测准确率定性评分为 67.3分，空报率为5.9%，漏报率为26.8%。介绍了150天韵律方法月内过程预测系统框架，系统分为系统介绍、NC数据 处理、数据调用、分析与计算、制作预报结论、评估数据管理、产品分发和系统设置八大功能块。该系统可计算相似系 数、历史概括率以及历史过程预测的“正确、空报、漏报”情况，提高了该方法定量化应用程度。 关键词：150天韵律方法，预测系统，应用检验 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2013.05.008 Introduction and Application Test of the 150 Days Cycle Method in the Prediction System for Precipitation Processes within a Month 1 2 1 2 1 Lin Shu , Hui Zhihong , Guo Junqin , Luo Xuemei , Yang Suhua (1 Northwest Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020 2 Meteorological Information and Technique Support and Equipment Center of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020) Abstract: This paper presents the principle and testing method to the precipitation processes predicted by the 150 days cycle. The precipitation processes predicted by the 150 days cycle method from 2002 to 2012 were assessed qualitatively, and it presented an average score of 67.3, the vacancy forecast rate is 5.9% and the missing forecast rate is 26.8%. The framework of the prediction system for precipitation processes within a month was introduced. The system has eight major function parts, system introduction, NC data processing, data call, analysis and calculation, prediction conclusion making, assessment data management, production issue, and system settings. This system can calculate the similarity coefficiency, historical coverage rate and the historical evolution accuracy, vacancy or missing process. The quantitative appli