南京地区降水预报研究.pdfVIP

南京地区降水预报研究* ** 万夫敬, 袁慧玲 , 宋金杰, 王 元 (南京大学大气科学学院中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室, 南京, 210093) 摘 要: 南京地区地处东亚季风影响下的长江下游地区, 又是梅雨锋暴雨的成灾区, 以南京地区为例研究长江下游地区的降 水特征, 具有重要的典型性和示范性. 本文利用南京市2004—2006年5—9月T213模式数值预报场资料和同期降水观测资料, 使用模式输出统计（model output statistics, MOS ）预报方法, 借助逐步回归和logistic 回归等统计工具, 研究了南京地区的降 水事件, 并将logistic 回归预报结果与事件概率回归(REEP)方法作了比较. 结果表明, logistic回归方法在降水概率预报方面比 事件概率回归有明显优势. 为了改善降水预报效果, 我们使用当地降水发生的频率作为新的阈值, 称为优化阈值, 将它作为 判断概率预报有无降水的标准. 同时, 对入选降水方程的预报因子进行分析, 提出了南京地区汛期降水的热动力概念模型. 关键词: 降水动力模型, 降水概率预报, logistic回归 Research on precipitation forecasts in Nanjing City Wan Fu-Jing, Yuan Hui-Ling, Song Jin-Jie, Wang Yuan (Key Laboratory of Mesoscale severe Weather of Ministry of Education, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, china) Abstract: Rainfall is one of the primary forecasted factors, it has significant importance to predict precisely and timely, which can greatly reduce its damage. Nanjing located in the East Asian monsoon region and the lower reaches of Yangtze River, which can represent the main precipitation features in this area. In this paper, precipitation probability forecasts (PPF) are generated for 24h summer rainfall in Nanjing through stepwise regression and logistic regression methods. The regression equation uses the operational T213 products and observed rainfall data in Nanjing station during 2004~2006. The results from the logistic regression method are much better than that using regression estimation of event probability (REEP). In order to further improve PPF, optimal threshold has been applied to discriminate rain and no-rain ev