赣州市地质灾害风险评估与区划研究.pdfVIP

赣州市地质灾害风险评估与区划研究 洪浩源 （江西省气象台，南昌 330046 ） 摘要：对于类似于赣州市山区的灾害管理和规划发展活动，地质灾害危险性区划图是非常重要的。在本研究 中，采用多变量回归模型（logistic regression ）对赣州市及其周边地区进行地质灾害风险评估，其有效性主要是利 用GIS 和统计手段对边坡稳定性起主导作用的因子进行适当的选择。为了揭露地质灾害的致灾因子，利用历史地 质灾害灾情数据与年降水量进行分析，结果表明相关性不明显；然而地质灾害的发生与坡度，高程范围等显示 出相反的结果。在GIS 平台下，收集、整理数据并建立数据库。地质灾害的一些致灾因子例如：坡度，坡向，高 程范围从DEM 数据中提取；岩层属性，断层分布从地质图数据中数字化。通过利用logistic 回归模型与概率统计 的方法，结合地质灾害点与致灾因子图的相关性，绘制地质灾害危险性区划图。结果表明：赣州市地质灾害风 险等级、面积百分比分别为：低风险 28.6% ，中风险41.8% ，高风险23.2% ，较高风险6.2% 。这些地质灾害风险 图可用于初步的土地利用规划和减灾的目的。 关键词：地质灾害，logistic 回归模型，地理信息系统，灾害风险区划 Geological Hazard Risk Zonation Assessment and Research at Ganzhou Area HONG Haoyuan (Jiangxi Province Meteorological Observatory, Nanchang, 330046, China) Abstract: Geological hazard zonation maps are vital for disaster management and for planning development activities in the mountainous downtown area like Ganzhou. In the present study, geological hazard risk assessment of Ganzhou and its surrounding area is made using multivariate (logistic regression) models. The effectiveness of geological susceptibility assessment using GIS and statistics is based on appropriate selection of the factors which play a dominant role in slope stability. To reveal the controlling factors of geological hazard, a temporal distribution recognized geological hazards is compared with the year precipitation variation, indicating a not strong correlation between precipitation and geological occurrence；The correlation between geological hazard and slope angle, and elevation shows the different results. All data were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database in a GIS platform. The factors th