基于时-空ETAS模型给出的川滇地区背景地震活动和强震潜在危险区 Evaluation of background seismicity and potential source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunan region base on the space-time ETAS model.pdfVIP
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第 卷 第 期 地 球 物 理 学 报 ,
53 2 Vol.53 No.2
年 月 ,
2010 2 CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS Feb. 2010
蒋长胜,庄建仓 基于时 空 模型给出的川滇地区背景地震活动和强震潜在危险区 地球物理学报, , ():
. ETAS . 2010532 305~
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Jian CS Zhuan JC.Evaluationofbackroundseismicitand otentialsourcezonesofstron earthuakesintheSichuan
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YunanreionbasedonthesacetimeETASmodel.犆犺犻狀犲狊犲犑.犌犲狅犺狊. inChinese 2010 532 305 317DOI10.
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基于时 空 模型给出的川滇地区背景
犈犜犃犛
地震活动和强震潜在危险区
1 2
蒋长胜 ,庄建仓
1中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京 100081
2数理统计研究所,日本东京都港区南麻布 4671068569
摘 要 利用基于时 空传染型余震序列( ,简称 )模型的随机除丛法,重
EidemicT eAftershockSeuence ETAS
p yp q
新审视了 年 月 日汶川 地震前可能存在的长期地震活动异常,研究了川滇地区背景地震活动特
2008 5 12 犕 8.0
S
征,并评估了当前的强震危险状态 对川滇地区 年以来的 以上的背景地震和丛集地震活动的研究结果
. 1970 犕 3.0
L
表明,该地区地震丛集特征明显、时空分布很不均匀、地震序列常有前震事件 直接将概率值作为地震计数的权重,
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