安徽省金融发展与经济增长_VAR和VEC模型实证.pdfVIP

: VAR VEC : * VARVEC 孙士金 : 安徽通过改革开放以来三十一年的发展, 金融发展在一定程度上促进了经济的 长, 相关实证 分析显示: 金融规模的扩张和股票市场的发展不同程度地促进了经济的 长, 虽然股票市场的发展滞后到第 七期对经济 长的贡献才超过了金融规模的扩张对经济 长的贡献, 但其贡献度一直在 长, 这表明, 虽然 金融规模的扩张对经济 长的贡献仍然较大, 但是成立只有十几年的股票市场的发展对经济 长的贡献具有 很大的潜力; 而金融发展的效率对经济 长的贡献有限, 且有些时期对经济 长呈负作用; 保险市场的发展 并没有表现出对经济 长的显著促进作用基于实证分析的结果, 为了安徽的金融发展更快更全面地促进经 济 长, 安徽股票市场的发展应摆在比传统金融中介发展更优先的位置, 应继续加大企业从股票市场的融资 力度, 同时应大力发展多元化金融体系来提高金融发展效率, 加快保险机构改革并提高保险业经营水平 : 金融发展; 经济 长; 格兰杰因果关系检验; 向量自回归模型; 向量误差修正模型 FinancialDevelopment and Econom ic Growth inAnhuiProvince: An EmpiricalStudy Based onVAR andVEC Model S N Sh-i jin Abstract: The financial development have promoted econom ic growth ofAnhui in some extent since the reform and o pening up. The empirical study indicates that expansion of financial scale and development of securitiesm arket have promoted the econom ic growth ofAnhui in varying degrees. The contribution of securitiesmarkets developm ent to eco nom ic growth exceeds the contribution of financial scales expansion to econom ic growth until the seventh period, but it is growing. It show s that the contribution of financial scales expansion to econom ic grow th is stillbigger than securities markets developm ent to econom ic growth, but securitiesm arket s developmentw ith less than twenty years is having huge potential. The efficiency of financial development contributes little to the econom ic grow th and sometmi es the contribution is negative. There is no pronounced evidence show s that the developm ent of insurancemarket contributes to the econom ic grow th. Based on the result of empirical analysis, to make the financialdevelopm ent promote the eco nom ic growth more quickly and comprehensively, Anhui should