不确定性经济的分析的研究及应用.doc

XX大学 毕业论文 题目 不确定性经济分析研究及应用 姓名 专业 指导老师 中国 XXXX XXXX年XX月摘要 不确定性分析是根据国家所规定的安全指标或公认的安全指标，去衡量风险的程度，以便确定风险是否需要处理和处理的程度。随着社会生产力的提高和科学技术的发展，工程投资项目的规模和复杂性日益增大，呈现出周期长、投资大、内部结构复杂、外部联系广泛、项目成败影响面大的特点。由于项目的复杂性及一次性的特点，实施过程中常会出现随机干扰因素，导致项目风险较大，而另一方面，由于项目的成败影响面大，要求只能成功、不能失败，故对管理要求相对较高。在一个工程投资项目的全寿命周期过程中，会出现各种不确定性，每个不确定性都会对项目发生影响，但最后的影响结果是由这些不确定性共同作用而产生的，为了确保建设项目的实际收益能力，事先对其风险进行客观、合理的分析与评价，并采取相应的措施是完全必要的，这对于改善我国建设项目投资的经济效益具有十分重要的现实意义。 关键词：项目风险 经济效益 衡量风险 不确定性分析 ABSTRACT According to the state regulated safety norm or the generally accepted safety norm, risk evaluation is used to measure the degree of risk in order to confirm whether the risk needs to be controlled or the degree of controlling.With the raise of the society productive force and the development of science technology, the scale and complexity of the engineering investment project become more and more large, and the project possesses such characteristic as long period, large amount,complex internal structure, wide-ranging external contact and large extent of the influence of success or failure. Because of these characteristic of the project, random interference factors often emerge in the process of its carrying out. It leads to more risk of it. On the other hand, its characteristic of large extent of the influence of success or failure decides that it must succeed, so the risk management becomes more important. In the whole process of an engineering investment project, there must be various kinds of unstable factors that can take the positive or negative effect upon the project, but the final result is come into being by all these unstable factors. In order to ensure the real benefit, it is absolutely necessary that objective and reasonable analysis and evaluation of the risk be made and corresponding measures be taken. There is very important practica