太阳活动统计预报5.doc

摘要 空间环境是航天技术和无线通讯技术研究中要考虑的重要因素之一，而扰动空间环境的驱使源是太阳活动，研究掌握太阳活动变化规律并对其进行准确预报具有重要的理论意义和广泛的应用前景。 由于人类目前对于太阳活动的物理机制尚很有限，对于太阳活动的预测主要依赖于数学和统计学的方法。已有的统计类方法和函数描述类方法均旨在对太阳活动周期轮廓的整体预测，但是它们的共同缺点是预测缺少对知识信息的利用、预测提前期短及对周期峰值的预测效果差。统计先验类方法是对轮廓预测类方法的有效补充，该类方法旨在预测周期峰值。在轮廓预测类方法中结合统计先验类方法所提供的峰值预测，不仅可以提高预测精确度，而且可以将预测期提前。统计先验类方法预测太阳活动周期峰值具有预测方法简便、预测提前期长等优点而被广泛采用，但是基于独立信息的统计先验类方法会在个别周期的预测中出现较大误差，以致人们对该方法预测结果的可靠性产生疑问。 本文在国家“十五”项目的资助下，深入研究了基于综合信息的太阳活动周期预测方法。 本文主要工作和创新点如下： 1. 提出了基于综合信息的太阳活动周期峰值预测方法。在传统的基于地磁活动指标型信息的统计先验类方法中，加入太阳活动周期轮廓的隐含型信息和几何型信息，采用多元回归技术实现周期峰值预测。实验结果证明，基于该新方法的预测模型的预测精确度、适应性和稳定性均明显提高；提出了满足中、长期不同预测需要的预测模型。根据所利用信息的可获得时间，归纳出分别适用于长、中、短期预测需要的预测模型。在轮廓预测方法中结合这些预测模型所做出的峰值预测结果，得到对完整太阳活动周期的较好预测。 2. 利用粒子滤波技术对太阳活动周期进行跟踪、预测，在局部时间范围内取得成功，是该项技术在这一领域内的首次尝试。 关键字 太阳活动周期 统计先验类方法 综合信息模型 峰值预测 Statistical Prediction of Solar Activity Qin Lei Directed By Tu Guofang The space environment is one of the key factor that needs to think about in the research of the space technology and the wireless communication technology , and the driving source that leads to the disturbance of the space environment is the solar activity. Studying and mastering the transition law of the solar activity and further making accurate prediction is of great theoretical significance and wide application potential. As the moment the Human knowledge for the physical mechanism of solar activity is still very limited. The predicting for solar activity mainly rely on mathematical and statistical methods. Available statistical method and function description method were both designed to predict the overall solar activity cycle profile. But their common shortcoming is the lack use of information, short predicting lead time and the worse performance of predicting the peak of the cycle. Statistical precursor method can act as an effective complement to the above two methods, which is designed to predict the cycle peak. The profile predicting methods in conjunction with the predicting result of the cycle peak provided by the statistica