巴菲特致股东的信1989.pdf

巴菲特研究中心 Research Centre for Buffettism 巴菲特致股东的信 1989 年 Buffett’s Letters To Berkshire Shareholders 1989 Our gain in net worth during 1989 was $1.515 本公司 1989 年的净值增加了 15 亿 1 billion, or 44.4%. Over the last 25 years (that 千 5 百万美元，较去年增加了 44.4%， is, since present management took over) our 过去 25 年以来(也就是自从现有经营 per-share book value has grown from $19.46 to 阶层接手后)，每股净值从 19 元成长 $4,296.01, or at a rate of 23.8% compounded 到现在的 4,296 美元，年复合成长率 annually. 约为 23.8%。 What counts, however, is intrinsic value - the 然而真正重要的还是实质价值-这个 figure indicating what all of our constituent 数字代表组合我们企业所有份子合理 businesses are rationally worth. With perfect 的价值，根据精准的远见，这个数字 foresight, this number can be calculated by 可由企业未来预计的现金流量(包含 taking all future cash flows of a business - in 流进与流出)，并以现行的利率予以折 and out - and discounting them at prevailing 现，不管是马鞭的制造公司或是行动 interest rates. So valued, all businesses, from 电话的业者都可以在同等的地位上， manufacturers of buggy whips to operators of 据以评估其经济价值。 cellular phones, become economic equals. Back when Berkshires book value was $19.46, 当伯克希尔的帐面价值是 19.46 美元 intrinsic value was somewhat less because the 之时，由于主要的资产多属于纺织事 book value was entirely tied up in a textile 业，所以实质的价值大概比帐面价值 business not worth the figure at which it was 要少一点，但时至今日我们企业的价 carried. Now most of our businesses are worth far 值却早已较帐面价值多的多，这代表 more than their carrying values. This agreeable 着伯克希尔实质价值成长的速度要比 evolution from a discount to a premium means that 帐面价值每年平均 23.8%的复合成长 Berkshires intrinsic business value has 率还要再高一些。 compounded at a rate that somewhat exceeds our 23.8% annual growth in book value. The rear-view mirror is one thing; the windshield 后照镜是一回事，雨刷又是另外一回 is another. A large portion of our book value is 事，我们帐面价值大部分是反应我们 represented by equity sec