国际工程承包资金风险管理的研究.pdf

　1999 年 7 月 系统工程理论与实践 第 7 期　 国际工程承包的资金风险管理研究 雷军华, 龙世辉, 孙锡衡 (天津大学水资源与港湾工程系, 天津 300072) 摘要　将风险分析技术用于国际工程资金管理领域, 在总结以往的风险分析理论的基础上, 通过对国 际工程承包资金风险的辨识、估计和评价, 结合对工程现金流分析, 系统分析了国际工程承包中可能 遇到的风险, 建立了一组资金风险评价的数学模型, 并结合计算机模拟技术, 编制了风险模拟计算程 序. 最后, 以承包尼泊尔某工程为例, 证明了该方法的可行性和有效性. 关键词　国际工程承包; 资金风险; 风险模拟 T he Study of Cap ital R isk M anagem en t in In ternational Con struction Con tracting L E I Junhua , LON G Sh ihu i, SU N X iheng ( . . . , , 300072) H ydro Eng D ep T ianJ in U niversity T ianjin Abstract　 In th is paper , the cap ital risk m anagem ent of international construction by . , m eans of risk analysis is described F irst the traditional theo ries of cap ital risk analysis . , are discussed in detail T hen po ssible cap ital risk s in international construction con . , tracting are analyzed and assessed system atically T h ird a series of m athem atical models of assessing cap ital risk s are established after analyzing the cash flow of the p ro ject. , . Based on the analysis m entioned above computer sim ulation p rogram s are developed F inally, as an examp le, a N epal’s p ro ject is show n. T he re