计量经济学模型分析.docVIP

居民消费水平与居民家庭课支配收入、CPI、税收及GDP之间关联度的实证分析 姓名：曾玉琳 专业：工商管理 学号：0911027070 时间：2011年12月19日—23日 摘 要 在中国经济发展进程中，消费是伴随其发展的一个重要内容，伴随着经济增长的加快，消费形式的变化也越来越快，消费作为我国经济增长的三驾马车之一，起着不可替代的作用，只有把经济增长转变为依靠内容的增长，才能真正实现惠国惠民国策。凯恩斯认为，短期影响个人消费的因素比较稳定，消费者的消费主要取决于收入的多少。但是大家都知道，收入的变化并非影响消费的全部因素。尤其，在短期内，有时边际消费倾向可以为负数，即收入增加时消费反而减少，收入减少时消费反而增加；有时边际消费倾向会大于1，即消费增加额大于收入增加额。这些现象告诉我们，在日常生活中，除了收入，还有其他一些因素会影响消费行为。本文利用1990年—2009的二十年数据，选取了居民可支配收入、CPI、税收、GDP四个因素分析对居民消费的影响，旨在说明其中的相互关系，为国家政策的制定与实施提供参考意见。 关键词：消费，收入，CPI，税收，GDP Abstract In china’s economic development process, the consumer is accompanied by the development of an important content, along with the accelerating pace of economic growth, consumption patterns of change is faster and faster, consumption as China’s economic growth is one of the troika, plays an irreplaceable role, only economic growth into relying on domestic demand increases up to truly achieve benefit citizen and country national policy. Cairns believes that the short-term impact of personal consumption comparison of subjective factors, consumer consumption depends on how much income. But we all know, the impact of income changes not all consumption. Especially in the short term, sometimes marginal propensity to consume can be negative, i.e. income increases consumption has decreased, while consumption reduced income had increased; sometimes the marginal propensity to be greater than 1,that is, consumption increases greater than the increase of income. The phenomenon tells us, in our daily lives, in addition to income, there are other factors that could affect consumer behavior. This article uses 1990-2009’s 20-year data, select the residents disposable income, tax rate, the CPI, GDP four factors to influence the consumption of the aimed at description of the relationship between them, to national policy making and implementation provide reference views. Key words: Consumer, Income, CPI, tax rate, GDP 目 录 摘要·····················································1 Abstract················