交通事故持续时间分析综述_英文_.pdfVIP

5 3 V ol . 5 N o . 3 2005 6 Journal of T ransport ation Sy s t ems E ngineering and Inf ormat ion T echnol ogy J une 2005 1009 -6744 ( 2005) 03-0 127 -14 A Review of Traffic Incident Duration Analysis W en qun Wang , H aib o Chen, M ar garet C. Bell ( I nstitute f or T r an spo rt St udies, U niver sity of L eeds, Leeds L S2 9JT , U K ) Abstract T his p ap er rev iew s t he f inding s of r esearch in incident durat ion analysis . A brief intr oduction o f tra ff ic incident s, incident typ es, and incident m ana gem ent system s is g iv en f irst . T he theor etical ar gum ent o f the dist ribution of the incident durat ion s is ex plained . Sever al m et ho ds u sed to a nalyse the incident dur ation s, inclu ding v ar iance analysis, reg r essio n , nonp ara m etric r eg ressio n , decision tr ee, h azard dur atio n , and fuzzy log ic, ar e descr ibed. T he r esear ch co nclu des th at the mo st resear ch f ound th at the dist ribution of the incident durat ion is rig ht skew ed and th at standar disatio n of the data collection is impor tant f or the incident dur ation analy sis . It is al so f ound t hat the tr aditio nal st atistic m ethods h av e diff icult ies in modelling the incident dur ation w it h the incomplet e incident data. T he fut ur e r esearch in incident dur atio n analysis w as recom m ended su ch as ar tif icial intelligence m ethods and standa rdisatio n of the data collection . Key words tra ff ic incident ; incident dura tio n; incident m anag em ent CLC number U 49 1. 3 王文群, 陈海波, 玛格利特·贝尔