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中国最大下载资料网 March 2005 The pace picks up…yet again • The spot market has shown a convincing step upwards in the past month on the back of stronger demand, thereby raising speculation that a return to the $500/t fob level is on the cards. • Material is changing hands at Chinese ports at $470/t cif, with limited availability resulting in a drawdown in port stocks. • The Chinese government plans to halt unapproved alumina projects. If successful this would reduce production growth and prove bullish for prices. Metallurgical grade alumina prices (US$/tonne, fob) 2003 2004 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Jan Feb Mar Spot prices Australia 252 293 295 357 299 472 412 338 357 395 385 408 423 Caribbean 237 277 273 337 281 432 381 322 337 368 365 388 403 Average spot price 244 285 284 347 290 452 396 330 347 381 375 398 413 2 LME 3-month official 1392 1379 1419 1519 1427 1667 1687 1716 1813 1721 1827 1872 1966 % of LME 17.5 20.7 20.0 22.8 20.3 27.1 23.5 19.2 19.1 22.2 20.5 21.3 21.0 1 Contract prices One year (%) n/a n/a 17-19 19-21 n/a n/a 21-22 19-21 18-20 18-20 18-20 Medium term (%) n/a n/a 15-17 16-18 n/a n/a 19-21 16-18 16-18 16-18 16-18 3 CRU composite price 154 163 163 174 163 192 208 201 215 204 208 n/a n/a Data: CRU. Notes: 1. Contract prices are for new contracts expressed as a % of Al LME 3M price. Medium term contracts refer to delivery in the following