城市综合体开发项目全过程风险管理的研究.pdf

摘要 在房地产调控不断深入的背景下，房地产开发商纷纷从住宅地产开发转向城市综合体 开发。但城市综合体开发运营模式与传统房地产快速周转模式差异较大，面临巨大的风险， 因此，需要对城市综合体开发项目全过程风险提出有针对性的管理措施。 本文以长沙某城市综合体项目为研究对象，采用等级全息建模对风险进行识别，得到 了全过程各阶段的风险因素；采用层次分析法对全过程的风险因素进行了分析与评价，得 到各风险因素对各准则层以及目标层的权重；采用ABC 法对全过程的各风险因素进行了 分类，得到了某城市综合体开发项目需重点防范的风险因素；最后从企业内部治理风险、 市场环境与定位、拆迁风险、融资风险、政策风险、城市规划风险等6 个方面详细论述了 该城市综合体开发项目风险防范与控制措施。 关键词： 城市综合体；风险管理；等级全息建模；层次分析法；ABC 法 I Abstract With the further development of the real estate regulation, more real estate developers are turning to city complex development from housing real estate. The development and operation model of city complex, however, forms so sharp a difference from the traditional rapid turnover model of real estate that it is confronted with huge risk. Therefore, it is urgent to put forward feasible management practices for the entire process risk of city complex development projects. Based on one city complex project in Changsha, this paper, adopting HHM (hierarchical holographic modeling), identifies risks and achieves risk factors in different stages of the entire process. By means of AHP (analytic hierarchy process), these risk factors have been analyzed and assessed to gain weights of risk factors to rule hierarchy and object hierarchy. By means of ABC Classification, these risk factors have been classified to obtain major preventive risks in this city complex development project. Finally, this paper has discussed preventing and controlling measures of the risk in this city complex development project, including internal risk management, market environment and position, demolishing risk, financing risk, policy risk and city planning risk. Key Words：city complex; risk management; HHM; AHP; ABC Classification