房地产发展论文.doc

目 录 摘要…………………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………Ⅱ 一、中国房地产业的历史回顾 ……………………………………………………1 二、房地产泡沫的定义、形成原因、运行机制及测度方法……………………3 (一)泡沫的定义………………………………………………………………3 (二)泡沫的成因………………………………………………………………3 (三)泡沫的运行机制…………………………………………………………4 (四)房地产泡沫的测度方法…………………………………………………5 三、中国房价的实证分析…………………………………………………………6 (一)房价与货币供给 …………………………………………………………6 (二)房价与沪证股价指数 ……………………………………………………8 四、江苏房地产市场的初步定量分析……………………………………………9 (一)生产层面 …………………………………………………………………9 (二)交易层面…………………………………………………………………10 (三)初步结论…………………………………………………………………11 五、指标法的应用…………………………………………………………………12 (一)房地产价格增长率/实际地区生产增长率 ……………………………12 (二)房屋销售指数/居民消费价格指数 ……………………………………13 (三)房价收入比………………………………………………………………13 六、结论……………………………………………………………………………14 参考文献……………………………………………………………………………16 论房地产泡沫：理论与实证分析 ——以江苏为例 摘 要：首先简单回顾了我国房地产业的发展历史，着重分析了90年代以来的房地产发展的整体情况；然后阐述了房地产泡沫的定义、形成原因、运行机制以及测度方法；选取了与房价相关程度较高的两个变量——货币供给量和沪证综合股价指数来建立回归模型，进一步分析房价与这两者的关系；下面以江苏省房地产市场为例，从房地产市场的生产和交易层面来做初步分析；最后根据前面所述的理论测度方法，选取了指标法来对江苏房地产市场进行泡沫程度的测量。 关健词：房地产泡沫；泡沫测度；线性回归；指标 Probing into the real estate bubble in terms of theory and practice, taking JiangSu province for example ABSTRACT：At the beginning, this paper review the history of the real estate industry of China, making a special effort to analyze the entirety development of the real estate industry since 1990.Then the paper expounded the real estate’s definition, the causes and the methods of bubble estimation .After that, this paper chose two factors to establish the linear regressions, which were closely related to the price of the house, in order to make a further analysis among the price of houses, the money supply and the SHA. Afterwards, taking the real estate market of Jiangsu province for example; the paper made a preliminary analysis from two different angles. At last this paper chose some indexes to estimate the bubble based on the methods of bubble estimation which were mentioned above. Key words: the real estate bubble，estimation of bubble，linear regression，index 一、中国房地产业的历史回顾