老问题、新挑战.pdf

Reliability Engineering: Old Problems and New Challenges Prof. Enrico Zio Nuclear Engineering Department, Politecnico di Milano, ITALY ESREL 2007 Stavanger, June 25, 2007 CONTENTS CONTENTS Reliability Engineering 2000’s: Complexity 1. Complex systems Multi-state Distributed Socio-technical (Organizational and human error analysis) Software Dependent (CCFs and Systems-of-Systems) 2. Complex tasks Maintenance Fault Diagnosis and Prognosis Life extension and re-assessment Security 3. Complex analysis: uncertainty Factual Data Expert Judgments Probabilistic methods Fuzzy methods ESREL 2007 Stavanger, June 25, 2007 Prof. Enrico Zio SAFETY: The ‘parmesan’ cheese model SAFETY: The ‘parmesan’ cheese model barrier Hazard No Hazard ESREL 2007 Stavanger, June 25, 2007 Prof. Enrico Zio SAFETY: Multiple Barriers SAFETY: Multiple Barriers Redundancy Training Safety Reviews No Hazard Hazard ESREL 2007 Stavanger, June 25, 2007 Prof. Enrico Zio Redundancy: Example Redundancy: Example ESREL 2007 Stavanger, June 25, 2007 Prof. Enrico Zio THE ‘SWISS CHEESE’ MODEL THE ‘SWISS CHEESE’ MODEL Faults in Procedural Errors Human Errors Redundancies