中国35_64岁人群心血管病危险_省略_素与发病危险预测模型的前瞻性研究.pdfVIP

902 2003 12 31 12 Chin J Cardiol, December 2003, Vol. 31 No. 12 35~ 64 王薇 赵冬 刘静 吴桂贤 曾哲淳 刘军 秦兰萍 孙佳艺 吴兆苏 , , 1992 11 35~ 64 [ ( China Multi provincial Cohort tudy, CMC ) ] 31 728 1992~ 2002 ( ) ( 1) 10 14 1% , 060% 202% , 137% ( 2) , : , , ( 3) 35~ 64 10% 954% , 10% 46% , 20% 08% 255% 10% , ; ; , ; Prospective study on thepredictivemodel of cardiovascular disease risk in aChinese population aged3564 WANG Wei, ZHA O Dong , LI U Jing , et al. Dep artment of Ep idemiology , Institute of eij ing Heart, L ung and lood Vessel Diseases, eij ing 100029, China Abstract Objective To examine the association betw een cardiovascular disease ( CVD) risk factors and 10year absolute risk of cardiovascular disease ( CVD) in a Chinese population and to establish mathematic models for predicting the risk of CVD for Chinese with different risk factors profiles. Methods A cohort of 31 728 subjects, aged 3564, enrolled from 11 provinces of China has been set up since 1992. T he baseline survey for CVD risk factors was carried out among all the subjects. Follow up of the subjects w as performed from enrollment to the end of 2002. The data was analyzed by univariate and multivariate methods. esults ( 1) The 10year accumulated coronary event rates were 14 1% for men and 062% for w omen and stroke event rates, 202% for men and 137% for women. ( 2) The predicated absolute risk of CVD increased w ith the coexistence of risk factors. There w ere synergic effects among different CVD risk factors. Different combination of major risk factors had different impact on CVD risk. ( 3) In 954% of the population aged 3564 t he probability of developing CVD in the next 10 years w as less than 10% , while in 46% of the population more than 10% . Conclusion From the public healt h point of view, the evaluation of CVD absolute risk is more important t