Decision Making.ppt

April 4, 2006 LIS580- Spring 2006 Decision Making Module 3 LIS 580: Spring, 2006 Instructor- Michael Crandall Roadmap Types of decisions Models of decision making The decision making process Creativity Shortcuts and traps Connecting the Dots “Making warning systems more sensitive reduces the risk of surprise, but increases the number of false alarms, which in turn reduces sensitivity” “The Chief of Staff has to make decisions, and his decisions must be clear… To be sure, the clearer and sharper the estimate, the clearer and sharper the mistake..” Understanding Decision Making Puzzles, Problems, and Wicked Problems A discrepancy between a desirable and an actual situation. Well structured, ill-structured, and complex problems. Decision A choice made between available alternatives. Decision Making The process of developing and analyzing alternatives and choosing from among them. Judgment The cognitive, or “thinking,” aspects of the decision-making process. Wicked Problems Proposed by H.J. Rittel and M. Webber of UC Berkeley in 1973. Wicked problems do not have an exhaustive set of potential solutions. Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem. Discrepancies in representing a wicked problem can be explained in numerous ways--the choice of explanation in turn determines the nature of the problems resolution. Every wicked problem is essentially unique--lessons-learned are hard to transfer across to other problems. Wicked problems are often solved through group efforts. Wicked problems require inventive/creative solutions. Every implemented solution to a wicked problem has consequences, and may cause additional problems. Wicked problems have no stopping rule(s). Solutions to wicked problems are not true-or-false, but instead better, worse, or good enough. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to a wicked problem. The planner or designer (solving the problem) has no inherent right to solve the problem, and no