非号志化路口肇事严重程度影响因素分析和改善策略.pdfVIP

构建生态人文交通 促进经济跨越发展:第十九届海峡两岸都市交通学术研讨会论文集 非号志化路口肇事严重程度影响因素分析与改善策略 黄承传，谢易达 摘 要：路口为最容易发生交通事故的地点，鉴于非号志化路口与号志化路口之运作不尽相同，但以往研 究常将两者合并，无法区别号志化与非号志化路口之交通事故特性，故本研究特别针对非号志路口之交通 事故深入探讨，找出影响肇事严重程度之显著因素，并据以研拟改善对策。本研究以 2008 年台北市非号 志化路口交通事故数据为分析对象，将肇事严重程度分为「死亡或骨折以上」、「人员受伤」、「车辆受损」 3 级，并搜集人、车、路、环境及交通管制因素等类别共 19 项变量，构建解释能力最好的混合罗吉特模式 作为分析的依据。依混合罗吉特模式校估结果，对于最严重的死亡或骨折以上事件，共有 6 个变量具有显 著正向影响，5 个变量具有显著负向影响。在改善策略部分，则针对各项重要影响因素，分别从交通工程、 交通执法与教育倡导三个面向研拟具体的对策，期能有助于安全的改善。 关键词：非号志化路口；混合罗吉特模式；肇事严重程度 Analysis on Influence Factor of Accident Severity of Unsignalized Intersections and Countermeasures Abstract: Intersections are locations in which higher accidents rates occur. In view of the different operational characteristics between signalized and unsignalized intersections, the scope of this study focused on the unsignalized intersections with the purpose to find out the significant factors influencing accident severity, as well as to propose corresponding measures of improvements. Accidents data of unsignalized intersections in Taipei city in the year of 2008 are collected and are classified into three degrees of severity. Based on literature review and data availability, 19 possible factors under 5 categories are identified and collected. Through the development of a mixed logit model, it appears that there are 6 factors possess positive effect, and 5 factors possess negative effect on the severity. Countermeasures from perspective of traffic engineering, enforcement, and education are then proposed. Key word: Unsignalized intersections; Mixed logit model; Accident severity 1 绪论 依据卫生署统计，交通事故伤害为我国国民 10 大死因中之一，降低交通事故的发生率与严重程度不 仅可以保障人民生命财产安全，同时亦可减少许多社会问题。然而交通事故之发生，往往非单一因素造成， 而是多项因素交互影响而形成，故找出交通事故发生的关键因素，方能据以研拟全面性的降低肇事概率或 严重程度的改善对策，以提升交通安全。交通事故的发生地点一般可区分为「路口」与「路段」两大类， 路