毕业设计（论文）-企业财务预警体系及其应用案例研究.doc

摘 要 随着全球经济一体化的发展，企业在获取经济资源的同时，也在承受市场激烈竞争的巨大压力。由于不确定因素的增加，企业所面临的各种交易风险中经营风险和财务风险也随之增加，因此，为了在竞争中处于不败之地，使企业健康有序的发展，有效的规避、防范和控制风险就成为企业发展的当务之急。 建立和完善财务预警系统是预防财务风险的有力手段，一个有效的财务风险预警系统可以预知财务危机的征兆，并能及时发现导致财务状况恶化的原因，使经营者在危机到来之前采取防御和控制措施，将危机消灭在萌芽状态。可见，财务风险预警对企业的发展起着非常重要的作用，但是从目前来看，我国财务风险预警的发展还很不完善，具体表现为没有形成一套完整的理论体系、财务风险预警模型的运用还存在许多不足、还尚未形成一套完善的财务风险预警系统、财务风险预警的实证分析说服力不强等等，针对这些问题进行了进一步的探讨。 依据财务管理和风险管理理论，采用定性和定量相结合及实证分析的方法，对财务风险预警进行了深入的研究，旨在构建一个有效的财务风险预警系统及在财务风险预警系统中有良好预测效果的财务风险预警模型，并通过实证分析对财务风险预警系统和财务风险预警模型的实用性和有效性进行验证，从而使财务风险预警在我国得到更好的发展和广泛的应用。 关键词：财务风险；财务危机；预警系统；风险预警 Abstract With the development of global economy’s integration, corporations endure greatly market competitive stress by capturing economical resource. Because of increasing unstable factors，the corporations’ various trade-risks including running risks and financial risks are augmented. Henceit is urgent affairs that corporations evade and control risks in order to competitive succeed and fit development. Establishing and perfecting warning system of financial risks are available measures that defend financial risks. A available warning system of financial risk can foresee the symptom of financial crisis and timely discover the reason which bring corporations deterioration of financial status，then when corporations are confronted with crisis ，operator can swiftly take measures to forecast and control the crisis，at last the forepart of crisis are perished. It is obvious，financial risk waing plays a very important role to the development of enterprises. But seen from the present，the development of waing of financial risk of our country is not still very complete，it is not form one intact theoretical system，the application of model of financial risk early warning is not store in enough to embodied in，is not form one complete system of financial risk early warning，demonstration analysis convincingness of financial risk early warning is not be getting better yet also，so analyze the questions of these respects especi