深圳市灰霾天气的时空分布特征与灰霾预警方案的设计.pdfVIP

深圳市灰霾天气的时空分布特征与 灰霾预警方案的设计 杨 琳 (.深圳市气象局，广东深圳 518040) 摘 要：基于深圳市气象台1953～2010年国家基本站的灰霾UV法统计资料和同期气象要素值， 以及灰霾出现前期及同期的地面和 850 hpa 形势资料和自动站的能见度统计资料等，来自深圳 市环境监测站的1980～2010 年污染物浓度资料，对深圳市灰霾天气的时空分布特征进行了概括 描述。运用逐步回归的方法，筛选出主要的影响因子，建立未来1～3 d的能见度预报方程。通 过对灰霾出现前天气形势的分析和归纳，建立灰霾潜势预报的思路。进一步对灰霾天气的典型 因子进行权重分级。集成以上三种预测结论，得出灰霾预警方案，形成灰霾预警预报模型。经 检验，结果表明：该模型预警方案具有一定的准确率和可靠性，对灰霾预测具有较好的应用价 值，为灰霾防治和预警系统的建立提供科学依据。 关键词：应用气象；灰霾预警；时空变化特征；预警方案 中图分类号：X8 文献标识码： 文章编号： Features of Spatial and Temporal Distribution and Early Warning Solution of Haze in Shenzhen YANGlin1, et al. （1.Shenzhen Meteorological Observatory, Shenzhen 518040） Abstract: Based on haze statistics and meteorological data from 1953 to 2010 and the weather situation data during haze period above ground and over 850 hpa from Shenzhen Observatory, and pollutant concentration data between 1980 and 2010 from Shenzhen Environmental Monitoring Station. Some affected elements were analyzed; temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of haze were described in Shenzhen. Furthermore, using stepwise regression procedures, main affected factors were selected to develop the next 1~3 day visibility prediction equation. Meanwhile, typical weather condition before and during haze report was analyzed and induced, haze potential prediction was gained. Through further weight classification for typical factors under haze days, haze forecast was given. Finally, Based on the above analyses, haze forecast and early warning solution was designed. The results showed that: t