基于中国居民平衡膳食模式的人均粮食需求量研究_唐华俊.pdf

2012,45(11):2315-2327 Scientia Agricultura Sinica doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.11.022 1 2 100081 100081 · · · · · · · Study on Per Capita Grain Demand Based on Chinese Reasonable Dietary Pattern 1 2 TANG Hua-jun LI Zhe-min 1 2 Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081 ; Agricultural Information Institue, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081 Abstract: ObjectiveTo analyze the composition of China’s per-capita grain demand, ascertain the per-capita grain consumption on the basis of rational diet patterns to realize the limited resources utility maximization and provide new supporting data for Chinas food security, and provide a scientific basis for developing appropriate policies to guide the consumer. All of the researches above are based on people’s nutrition and health.Method The demand for per capita rations, grain for fodder and processing in the balanced diet model were calculated by applying the Prandial Balance Analysis Method. The per capita demand for seeds, industry and wastage were calculated by using the Trend Prediction Method, and the Scenarios Analysis Method was adoped to discuss different influence degrees between the two results.Result The per-capita grain demand based on balanced dietary pattern is no more than 400 kg·a-1 -1 -1 . The low program is 252.6