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基于风光联合概率分布的微电网概率潮流预测_茆美琴.pdf
2014 2 Vol.29 No. 2
29 2 TRANSACTIONS OF CHINA ELECTROTECHNICAL SOCIETY Feb. 2014
230009
TM732
Probabilistic Power Flow Forecasting of Microgrid Based on Joint
Probability Distribution about Wind and Irradiance
Mao Meiqin Zhou Songlin Su Jianhui
Research Center for Photovoltaic System Engineering Ministry of Education
Hefei University of Technology Hefei 230009 China
Abstract Wind and photovoltaic generations are important units of a microgrid. Considering that
the effects of wind and irradiance on the microgrid are of certain correlation, forecasting the joint
probability distribution of power flow can reduce the impact of varied wind speed and irradiance on the
operation of the microgrid and provides the theory base for the energy management in a microgrid. The
deterministic power flow is forecasted firstly based on the forecasting of wind and photovoltaic
generations, and then Markov chain and Latin hypercube sampling are combined to forecast the
conditional and unconditional joint probability distribution of power flow in the microgrid. The results
show that the confidence interval calculated by the former is more valuable, which provides a theoretical
basis for further analyzing and optimizing system operation.
Keywords Microgrid, probabilistic
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