铁岭地区近53a降水变化趋势分析.pdfVIP

∗ 铁岭地区近 53a 降水变化趋势分析 杨艳萍、庞丽英、王丽 （辽宁省铁岭市气象局 辽宁铁岭 112000） 摘要： [目的]分析铁岭地区降水趋势变化，为当地农业经济发展提供气候依据。[方法]在假定降水量为连 续因子的状态下，用最小二乘法进行一元线性回归拟合，依托 Escel 程序绘制趋势线和渐近线，用两点间 距离计算增减幅度。[结果] 铁岭地区降水量呈下降趋势，到目前年总量及生长季减少 60～70mm，春季减 少 13mm，夏季减少 40mm，秋季减少 20mm，冬季增加约 3mm；2000 年之后减少最明显。[结论]铁岭地区降 水量比较充沛，由于降水量的减少，变率的增大，致使阶段性干旱有所增加，为适应气候的变化应及时调 整农业产业结构。 关键词：降水，趋势，农业，铁岭 Tieling 53a precipitation in recent trends and impacts on agriculture YANG-YANPING （Tieling City, Liaoning Province, Liaoning Meteorological Bureau Tieling） Abstract: [Objective] To analyze the trend of Tieling precipitation changes for the local agricultural economy based on the development of climate. [Method] in the assumption that factors of precipitation for the continuous mode, using least squares linear regression to fit, depending on the trend line drawn Escel procedures and the asymptotic line, calculated using the distance between two points increase or decrease. [Results] Tieling downward trend in regional precipitation, to the current year and the growing season to reduce the total amount of 60 ~ 70mm, the spring to reduce the 13mm, the summer to reduce the 40mm, to reduce the fall of 20mm, the winter increase of about 3mm; 2000 years after the reduction of the most obvious. [Conclusion] Tieling relatively abundant rainfall, as a result of reduced precipitation, increased variability, resulting in an increase in drought stages, in order to adapt to climate change in the agricultural structure should be adjusted. Key words: precipitation, trends, agriculture, Tieling [1] 在全球变暖的大气候环境下，各地区的气候条件都有不程度的改变 。从而直接或间接 的对农业生产产生不同的影响，气温升高使总热量增加，温变率也在增大，增加了气候的风 险性。铁岭地区位于辽宁省北部，属中温带大陆性季风气候区，半湿润气候类型。近年由于 气候变暖，降水量在减少，季节性干旱频率在增加[2]。本文就当地降水状况分析趋势变化， 寻求规律，有的放矢解决气候变化所带来的威胁，为地方经济发