中国货币政策制定规则及实施效果的实证分析.pdfVIP

∗ 200433 () 1992 2006 M1 02 0 96 99 94 94 94 Making rule of money policy and its effects on economy in China Longzhen Fan Chu Zhang School of Management Department of Finance Fudan University Hong Kong University of Science and Shanghai 200433 Technology, Hong Kong Email: lzfan@fudan.edu.cn Email: czhang@ust.hk Abstract: Since the economic reform in China, the central bank of China tries to regulate money supply and deposit and lending interest rates to achieve the goal of stabilizing commodity prices and stimulating economic development. With the data during the period from 1992 to 2006, time-varying models of Taylor rule and McCallum rule are introduced and are used to discuss the reaction of money policy variables represented by money supply M 1 and the average of lending and deposit interest rates to economic variables with inflation rate and output gap as representatives. It is found that the reaction of the official interest rate to inflation rate is quite small, is negative sometimes, and is not consistent with Taylor rule. But the reaction to output gap is significantly positive, and show strongly curbing real economic growth during the period from 1996 to 1999. Before 1994, money supply is not consistent with McCallum rule,