基于灰色模型的风速_风电功率预测的的研究.pdfVIP

第 38 卷 第 19 期 电力系统保护与控制 Vol.38 No.19 2010 年 10 月 1 日 Power System Protection and Control Oct. 1, 2010 基于灰色模型的风速-风电功率预测研究 李俊芳，张步涵，谢光龙，李 妍，毛承雄 （电力安全与高效湖北省重点实验室（华中科技大学），湖北 武汉 430074） 摘要：风场中风速变化带来的风电功率波动是影响风电质量的重要因素。基于灰色模型，对超短时平稳风速进行了一步至四 步预测，并且检验了预测误差情况。对不稳定风和阵风进行风速预测，以平稳风为例，根据实际风电功率和对应时序风速的 关系建模，得到了风电功率随风速变化的各类模型下的拟合参数。为了提高风电功率的预测精度，通过从分段函数和整体建 模两个角度比较各种模型的准确程度，得到了适宜于作为风电功率特性曲线的函数模型。通过预测的超短期风速在两种情况 建模时风电功率模拟值与实际值的比较，得到了更适宜作为风电功率特性的模型。用我国某风场的数据验证了方法的有效性。 关键词：风场；灰色模型；实时风速预测；风电功率特性曲线；信赖域法 Grey predictor models for wind speed-wind power prediction LI Jun-fang ，ZHANG Bu-han ，XIE Guang-long ，LI Yan ，MAO Cheng-xiong （Electric Power Security and High Efficiency Lab ，Huazhong University of Science and Technology ，Wuhan 430074 ，China ） Abstract ：High variability in generated wind power that results from the wind speed is the key factor that impacts power quality ．Based on grey predictor models，this paper presents one-step to four-step average ten-minute wind speed forecasting and gives the residual error for steady wind ．Wind speed predictions for unsteady wind and gust are also made ．Then ，taking the steady wind speed for instance ， fitting parameters in various models that wind power changes with wind speed are obtained by modelling the relationship between real wind power and sequential wind speed. In order to enhance the forecasting precision of wind power, the function model fitting for wind power characteristic is established through comparing the precision of different models from the aspect of piecewise function and overall model ．This paper compares the two modelling methods and finds the appropriate one ．Compared the simulated value with actual value ，better model fitting for wind power characteristics is obtained ．Finally