蛛网模型在中国农产品市场中的应用.docVIP

本科生毕业论文 蛛网模型在中国农产品市场中的应用 ——以蔗糖为例 姓　　名 学　　号 专　　业 指导教师 2013年月日Abstract In order to review the application of cobweb model in Chinese agricultural products market, so as to put forward suggestions stabilize the market of agricultural products,and promote the healthy development of economy. In this essay, I take sugar market as an example,and selects the related annual data in 1995-2012 ,such as sugar production, consumption and price , to empirically analyze the demand function and supply function of sugar.Then I assume the market is clearing, and construct the cobweb model of sugar market. Through the analysis of the model, I find sugar market is conforming to the cobweb model theory.Finally,I observe the reason of the appearance of cobweb model phenomenon on the sugar market, and analyze the reason of fluctuations in the sugar price.According to the conclusion,I puts forward some policy suggestions to stabilize sugar market, and provide a reference for other agricultural products market.On one hand,I hope that through the analysis of the cobweb model, producers can make rational expectations of price. On the other hand, we should recognize that although cyclical fluctuationsof economy can not be affected by human will,but some economic policies can mitigate the negative effect of the fluctuation, government should play a important role of macroeconomic regulation,to ensure the stable development of the national economy Key Words: Cobweb model；Sugar market；Cyclical fluctuations；Equilibrium price 目 录 一、引言 1 （一）研究的背景和意义 1 （二）文献综述 2 二、白糖市场的历史数据分析 4 （一）数据的选取 4 （二）白糖数据的趋势性分析 5 1.白糖价格变动趋势 5 2.白糖产量变动趋势 6 3.白糖消费量变动趋势 6 （三）白糖数据的关联性分析 8 1.白糖价格与产量关系分析 8 2.白糖价格与消费关系分析 9 三、白糖市场蛛网现象的经验分析 12 （一）白糖需求与价格的函数关系估计 12 1.建立白糖需求函数模型 12 2.白糖需求函数的估计结果 12 3.白糖需求函数模型的检验 13 （二）白糖供给与前期价格的函数关系估计 14 1.建立白糖供给函数模型 14 2.白糖供给函数的估计结果 15 3.白糖供给函数模型的检验 15 （三）蛛网理论在白糖市场的应用分析 18 1.建立白糖市场蛛网模型 18 2.白糖蛛网模型的数学分析 18 3.白糖蛛网模型的图解说明 19 四、结论及建议 21 （一）结论 21 1.糖料生产的小农经济体制和经验管理制度 21 2.白糖需求弹性过小 21 3.市场机制发挥不合理