EMC Predictability Meeting, NCEP, 19 May 2009.ppt

Predictability meeting, NCEP, 19 May 2009 An ensemble of ensembles (TIGGE): Whats available now in CXML format and whats coming via GIFS for tropical cyclone forecasting Beth Ebert CAWCR What is GIFS? GIFS = Global Interactive Forecast System, forecast products generated from an ensemble of NWP ensembles to better prepare for high impact events (especially in the developing world), for the use and benefit of humanity Pie in the sky? Summary of TIGGE data, March 20082-day delay Fields included in TIGGE gridded dataset Surface level 10 meter u-velocity,10 meter v-velocity, Convective available potential energy, Convective inhibition, Field capacity, Land-sea mask, Mean sea level pressure, Orography, Skin temperature, Snow depth water equivalent, Snow fall water equivalent, Soil moisture, Soil temperature, Sunshine duration, Surface air dew point temperature, Surface air maximum temperature, Surface air minimum temperature, Surface air temperature, Surface pressure, Time-integrated outgoing long wave radiation, Time-integrated surface latent heat flux, Time-integrated surface net solar radiation, Time-integrated surface net thermal radiation, Time-integrated surface sensible heat flux, Total cloud cover, Total column water, Total precipitation, Wilting point Pressure levels (1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 300, 250, 200 hPa) Geopotential height, specific humidity, temperature, U-velocity, V-velocity Potential temperature level (theta=320K) Potential vorticity Potential vorticity level (2PVU) Potential temperature, U-velocity, V-velocity Operational products – single-ensemble tracks, strike probability, Lagrangian meteogram Test products – multi-ensemble tracks and strike probability(courtesy Piers Buchanan, Met Office) Test products – ensemble strike probabilities(courtesy Young-Youn Park, KMA) TIGGE ? GIFS Demonstrate utility of multi-model ensembles for high-impact events using tropical cyclones as an example Explore formats for exchange of TC data Data provide