Excuses! Excuses!Its Time for A 2nd Option.ppt

Excuses! Excuses!Its Time for A 2nd Option By: Cal Hodge, President A 2nd Opinion, Inc. For: Public Consultation Meeting on Regulatory and Non-Regulatory Fuel Activities for 2005 May 2, 2005 March 17 Documents Imply: CARB can’t calculate permeation emissions The model is wrong The fleet is wrong Ethanol costs less Real World Ozone Data Indicates Model Missing Ethanol Emissions CARB is right to account for them Early RFG ozone data indicatesmissing ethanol emissions 1993 - 1996 Ozone Data Shows  Something Wrong with Ethanol Model Real World Ozone Data Indicates Model Missing Ethanol Emissions CARB is right to account for them Early RFG ozone data indicatesmissing ethanol emissions More recent CaRFG ozone data indicates ethanol not living upto “clean fuel” claims Switch to Ethanol Delayed SCAB Zero Exceedances by 4 Years Real World Ozone Data Indicates Model Missing Ethanol Emissions CARB is right to account for them Early RFG ozone data indicatesmissing ethanol emissions More recent CaRFG ozone data indicates ethanol not living upto “clean fuel” claims Fuels and cars should not require big changes to use “clean” components Performance outweighs calculations Other Ozone Factors In 2003 changes in NOx Permeation Driveability Commingling Bad Weather Outweighed Fleet evolution In 2004 changes in NOx Permeation Driveability Outweighed by Good weather Negligible commingling Fleet evolution The Rest of the Story on NOx Emissions Vs Oxygenate Content ETBE Benefits Less emissions from: Gasoline Permeation, (bigger molecule) NOx (ethers cause less NOx emissions) Driveability debit (alcohol problem) Generally better properties (more dilution) Ethanol distribution More gasoline supply Lower retail prices Same ethanol demand Replacing Ethanol with ETBE Increases Gasoline Supply 10 to 18% Butane for RVP -5.7% ETOH +14.4% ETBE +2.0% Butane 10.7% more gaso that is better thanit has to be Pentane for RVP -5.7% Ethanol +15.3% ETBE +8.5% Pentane 18.1% mo