铁路论文；AM-HUANG（英文）.pdfVIP

A FUZZY APPROACH TO RISK ASSESSMENT FOR TRACK MAINTENANCE INCORPORATED WITH AHP Sheng Huang, Dr. Min An and Prof. Chris Baker Safety and Reliability Management Research Group School of Engineering (Civil Engineering) The University of Birmingham, B15 2TT sxh283@bham.ac.uk, m.an@bham.ac.uk, c.j.baker@bham.ac.uk KEYWORDS: Track Maintenance; Safety Assessment; Fuzzy Logic; Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) ABSTRACT Risk assessment provides useful decision-making support to manage risks for track maintenance. According to the new UK Railways (Safety Case) Regulations 2000 and associated guidance, railway operators are required to provide a comprehensive safety case to reduce risks to As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). However conventional risk assessment techniques may not be appropriate to evaluate risks with their high level of uncertainty in track maintenance. Railway safety analysts need to develop and employ novel assessment approaches for their safety case preparations. This paper presents a new methodology using fuzzy logic and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for systematic safety risk assessment. Fuzzy logic has shown its strength to conduct risk assessment in industries such as offshore and aviation. The developed safety risk model assesses the component risk level of track system by fuzzy logic based approaches. An AHP is incorporated into the model to use its advantage in determining the relative importance of the risk factors so that the assessment can be progressed from component level to system level. Expert’s judgment is also involved to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment. An example is used to illustrate the proposed methodology for the track maintenance safety risk assessment. 1. INTRODUCTION