具有内生人口转变的Ramsey模型与仿真（Ⅰ）（英文）.pdfVIP

数 学 杂 ，：L!．、 Vo1．31(2011) J．ofMath．(PRC) NO．2 THE RAM SEY M 0DEL W ITH ENDOGENOUS DEM oGRAPH IC TRANSITION AND SIMULATION (I) CAIDong—han (Scho0l0fMathandStqtWuhanUniversityWuhan430072．China1 Abstract： In thisarticle，theendogenousdemographictransition function isintegrated intotheclassicalRamseymode1．By solving thehouseholdutilitymaximization problem，a two— dimensiona1dynam icalsystem isobtained．Itisprovedthatthedynam icalsystem describingthe modelhasatleastanequilibrium and wemainly discussthecasethatthedynamicalsystem has auniaueequilibrium ．Usingthenumericalsimulation，wefindthatthepopulationchangein the demographictransition period hassubstantialeffecton thepercapitaconsumption buthasnot notableeffectoilthepercapitacapitalalongtheoptimalgrowthpath． Keywords： Ram seymodel；nonzeroequilibrimn；phaseportraitanalysis；demographictran— sition；numericalsimulation 2010M R SubjectClassification： 34H05；49J15；91B62；93C95 Documentcode： A ArticleID： 0255—7797(2011)02-0191—06 1 Introduction Theinteractionbetweenthepopulationchangeandeconomicgrowthinthedemographic transiti0nDeriodarousedinuehattentionbydemographer，economistrecently(17j_ Ingenera1thegrowthrateofthepopulationisassumedtobefixedorchangewiththe timef8-9]．However，thepopulationgrowthrateincreaseswiththeeconomicgrowthatthe earlv stageandthenturnsintodeclineaftertheeconomicgrowth reachessonleleve1．And theshaDeofthepopulationgrowthrateappearsaninverted—Uform[3]，whichisthedistinct characteristicinthedemographictransition． In thispaper，weassumethatthepopulation growth rateisafunction ofpercapita caDita1andincreaseswiththepercapitacapitalfirstlyandthendecreasesafterthepercapita capi