基于投影寻踪模型的集成系统风险评估.pdf

第31 卷第6 期 辽宁工程技术大学学报（自然科学版） 2012 年 12 月 Vol.31 No.6 Journal of Liaoning Technical University （Natural Science ） Dec. 2012 文章编号：1008-0562(2012)06-0941-04 基于投影寻踪模型的集成系统风险评估 王韶霞，车延华 （烟台职业学院信息工程系，山东 烟台264670 ） 摘 要：进行系统集成项目的风险评估，采用投影寻踪方法将多维指标项目进行降维处理，在低维空间研究投影 特征值，达到研究高维数据特性的目的.通过样本采集评估项目风险，计算样本一维投影值，并结合具体的系统， 确定项目的总体风险等级和各个影响因素的风险等级，构建了信息系统集成项目风险评估模型，利用其对项目进 行了评估，评估效果较好，对集成系统的项目风险管理有一定的参考价值. 关键词：集成系统；风险管理；投影寻踪；应用研究；项目管理；风险评估；评价模型；数据投影 中图分类号：TP 319 文献标志码：A Integrated risk assessment system based on projection pursuit model WANG Shaoxia, CHE Yanhua (Department of Information Engineering, Yantai Vocational College, Yantai 264670, China) Abstract: In order to better assess the risk for the system integration projects, this study investigates the projection characteristic value in low dimension space, instead of investigating high-dimensional data, using projection pursuit method for dimensionality reduction in multidimensional index. With sample collections to evaluate the project risks, the study calculates the sample projection values in one dimension space, and determines the project overall risk ranking and the risk level of various affecting factors in a specific system. In addition, the study develops a risk assessment model for an integrated information system project. Using the model developed, the evaluation achieves an excellent outcome, which provides a useful reference value for the project risk management in integrated system. Key words: integrated systems; risk management; projection pursuit; applied research; project management; risk assessment; evaluation model; data projector 0 引 言