我国房地产价格与GDP关系实证分析 Empirical Analysis of Relationship Between Real Estate Price and GDP in China.pdfVIP

研究报告 R鲤盛 D 我国房地产价格与GP关系实证分析 王西军．刘传哲 中国矿业大学管理学院．江苏徐州221008 【擅要】近几年来，我国房地产价格的迅猛增长引起了各方的重视。然而。国内有关房地产价格影响因素的研究还仅停留在定性分析 我国房地产价格与GDP之间的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：我国的房地产价格与GDP之间存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系； GDP的波动有助于预测房地产价格的走势；短期内经济的过热容易引起房地产价格的过快增长。 【关■词l房地产价格；GDP；协整分析；误差修正模型；Granger因果分析 【中圈分类号】F293．35 【文献标识码】A I文章■号1 1000一7857(2007)08一0061—04 in of BetweenRealEstatePriceandGDP EmpiricalA舰lysisRelationsllip China Sc矗ooz Q厂肘帆呼胱n￡，吼ino‰劫e邶吵旷施川增勰d死c五肿f9鼽x比^ou22J008，五吼伊H尸胁iwe，醌iM Ab酿隋ct：Tnrecentyears，the 0fChiIl王17sre山estatehasdmwnawideattention．However．tllestudiesonthe swift舯wth prices factors realestate inChinaare in few aIld this mainlyqualitativenature，with empiricalanalyses．In influencingprices quantitative of betweenrealestate andGrossDomestic madebasedonchina’s p印er，anempiricalaIlalysisrelationship prices Product(GDP)i8 time—s甜esstatisticsfrom1987to2004andwithmethodsof CorrectionModel test，EⅡor co—integration (ECM)，Gr肌gercausality evidencesshowtbatthereexistsa and betweenChina，sreal test．Empi而cal long—temsteadvdvnanlicequilibriumrelationship of estate arIdGDP．Fromboth a11d of GDPisthe causefbrthev枷ations prices long—termshort—te瑚pointsview，China，s Gr蚰ger realestate trendofGDPhasadecisivedkctonboththeincreaseanddecreaseofrealestate prices．The data0ftheⅡuctuationofGDPcanbe usefulin thetrerldofrealestate ashort