第8章 经济增长II.ppt

* * * * Remember: investment in the steady state, i*, equals break-even investment. If your students are comfortable with basic calculus, have them derive the condition that must be satisfied to be in the Golden Rule steady state. * Check out the second paragraph on p.220: It gives a nice contrast of the Solow model and Marxist predictions for the behavior of factor prices, comparing both predictions with the data. * * * * * * This section (this and the next couple of slides) presents a very clever and fairly simple analysis of the U.S. economy. When asked, students often have reasonable ideas of how to estimate MPK (look at stock market returns), n and g, but very few offer suggestions on how to estimate the depreciation rate: there are lots of different kinds of capital out there. If you ask your students to think about this, they will be more inclined to appreciate the simple and elegant way in which Greg estimates the aggregate depreciation rate (presented a couple of slides below). * * * * When the second point displays on the screen, it might be helpful to remind students that, in the Solow model’s steady state, total output grows at rate n + g. Thus, we can estimate n + g for the U.S. simply by using the long-run average growth rate of real GDP. * * * Before showing the next slide, ask your students which of the two views is closest to their own. * * * (Part of) Table 8-2 on p.217. Figures for Germany prior to 1995 are for W. Germany * * * * Table 8-2 on p.217 * * * * Why the growth rates of Y and K are equal: Y = AK, so the growth rate of Y equals the sum of the growth rates of A and K. A is constant, so its growth rate is zero. Hence, output and capital grow at the same rate. Discussion: The return to capital is the incentive to invest. If capital exhibits diminishing returns, then investment cannot be a source of sustained growth. If, as in this model, MPK does not fall, then the incentive to invest more than depreciation i