__新兴市场的机会与陷阱（PPT 页）.pptVIP

新興市場的機會與陷阱 朱雲鵬 中央大學教授暨台灣經濟發展研究中心主任 94年10月 金磚四國 Brazil Russia India China 最新GDP成長率 巴西：4.9％（2004）, 3.9％（2005Q2） 俄羅斯：4.9％＆6.1％（2005Q1＆Q2） 印度：6.2％＆7.0％（2004＆2005Q1） 中國大陸：9.5％ （2005Q1＆Q2） 巴西股價指數 俄羅斯股價指數 印度股價指數 中國大陸股價指數 金磚四國概念基金平均報酬率各區域基金績效前三名 分析方法 一個新金磚的來臨與風險： 以土耳其為例 TUR.1, 1923 - 1929:Regime When the Allied powers divided up the Ottoman Empire after World War I, Turkish patriotism was provoked and helped General Mustafa Kemal seize leadership in a War of Independence. With a humble background and military fame, Kemal appealed to the common man and could with support from the masses rise above his superiors. Driving away the occupiers and expelling the Greek population made him immensely popular. After securing Turkey’s international recognition in the Treaty of Lausanne 1923, Kemal eliminated the caliphate and created the Turkish Republic. To govern the new nation, Kemal founded his Republican People’s Party (CHP). Despite egalitarian rhetoric, the party left intact the political alliance of military-bureaucratic elite and rural notables, excluding popular classes. Opposition was not allowed. TUR.1, 1923 - 1929: Policy The Lausanne treaty constrained public economic policy and precluded Turkey from imposing protective customs. Instead, infant industry was protected with subsidies and support from state banks. The government purchased agricultural products to keep their prices high and also subsidized agricultural machinery. Agricultural tax was low, placing the tax burden on the urban sector. To foster a capitalistic sector, the government purchased Turkey’s foreign-owned enterprises and tried to mobilize domestic private capital for private investments, mainly in coal mining. From 1927, private companies were given free land and were exempted from tax, while government departments were required to purchase Turkish products. New factories were granted 25 years of monopoly in their field. TUR.1, 1923 - 1929: Economy As soldiers came home to farmland that had been