和谐生态_健康饮食_201004.ppt

* McMichael A.J., Powles J., Butler C. and Uauy R., 2007. 《食物、畜牧业、能源、气候变迁、及健康。》「刺胳针」医学杂志370: 9594, pp 1253 - 1263 * 近年来，我国牛肉生产发展很快，也是随经济发展，肉食结构调整的结果，牛羊肉增长速度超过猪肉。2003年世界牛肉产量5874.2万吨，占世界总肉量的23.51%。因贸易数据最近是2002年。故本文统计数据一律采用2002年数据。世界牛肉产量5788.3万吨，基本结构没有变（23.62%）。我国产量是532.0万吨，占世界总产的9.19%。在世界牛肉产量中属于中等。 * * Source: FAO, 2003 in Compassion in World Farming 2004. Reducing Meat Consumption: The case for urgent reform. /globalwarning Source: /ag/aga/glipha/index.jsp * * In 2006 farmers produced an estimated 276 million tons of chicken, pork, beef, and other meat—four times as much as in 1961. On average, each person eats twice as much meat as back then, about 43 kilograms. Worldwatch Institute, State of the world 2008. The share of animal products in the diet has increased consistently in the developing countries, while remaining constant in developed countries (Table 8.2). Economic growth and changing lifestyles in some developing countries are causing a growing demand for meat and dairy products, notably in China where current demands are low. Meat demand in developing countries rose from 11 to 24 kg/capita/yr during the period 1967-1997, achieving an annual growth rate of more than 5% by the end of that period. Rosegrant et al. (2001) forecast a further increase of 57% in global meat demand by 2020, mostly in South and Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest increases in demand are expected for poultry (83 % by 2020; Roy et al., 2002). In developing countries, per capita protein supply increased by 123% in 2000 since the 1960s, share of protein from animal sources increased by 67%. WG3 Chap 8 p.502. Table 8.2 Growing pop and income, along with changing food preferences, are rapidly increasing demand for livestock products, while globalisation is boosting trade in livestock inputs and products. Global production of meat is projected to more than double from 229 million tonnes in 1990-1 to 465 million in 2050, and that of milk to grow from 580 to 1043 mil