不确定条件下的电压暂降概率评估.pdfVIP

第 34 卷 第 2 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 34 No. 2 2010 年 2 月 Power System Technology Feb. 2010 文章编号：1000-3673 （2010 ）02-0041-05 中图分类号：TM 73 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·40 不确定条件下的电压暂降概率评估 杨晓东，李庚银，周明，李国栋 （电力系统保护与动态安全监控教育部重点实验室(华北电力大学) ，北京市 昌平区 102206 ） Probability Assessment of Voltage Sag Under Uncertain Conditions YANG Xiao-dong, LI Geng-yin, ZHOU Ming, LI Guo-dong (Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control (North China Electric Power University), Ministry of Education, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: Uncertainty is one of the difficulties in the 0 引言 assessment of voltage sag. In this paper a method to simulate 不确定性因素存在于电力系统的诸多领域[1-4]， and assess probability of voltage sag under uncertain 如何处理不确定性问题是电压暂降评估工作中的 conditions is proposed, in which the influence of random factors, such as startup and shutdown of units, load fluctuation 难点之一[5] 。随着敏感性负荷在负荷结构中所占比 and variation of system operation modes, on assessment indices 例越来越高，电源启停、负荷波动等随机性因素极 of voltage sag and emphatically analyzed. When operation 大地增加了系统的复杂性[6-11] ，因而在不确定条件 condition of units varies, the initial power flow distribution is 下计算负荷点的电压暂降评估指标更具实际价值。 modified by linearization method. A pattern of iteration 当前的电压暂降评估方法大多是针对特定的网 calculation of voltage sag under load fluctuation is built to 络结构和运行方式进行仿真和指标计算，如临界距 avoid the recalculation of power flow for each time of iteration, 离法[12-14] 、故障点法[15-18] ，或者只考虑某一种不确 thus the calculation efficiency of the proposed algorithm is improved. Th