我国人口城市化水平的统计分析.pdfVIP

2004 11 24 Statistical Research No. 11 2004 * 白先春 凌 亢 郭存芝 ABSTRACT The application of the Logistic model is the most w idely in describing the development tread of ur- banization in region Because the result that the urbanization process isn. t in accordance w ith the Logist ic model was given by some researchers on the basis of the case analysis since 1949, the Logistic model is modified according to the means of urbanization The modified Logistic model is used to the stat ist ical analysis on the development trend of urbanization in China The result of case research shows that the modified Logistic model illustrates the trend of urbanization in China basically : ; Logist ic , 一引言 , , 1949 , ( 1) , : , , ( 1) , , , 20 二Logistic 模型的修正 , , Keyf itz Rogers Logistic Keyf itz Logistic ; , , , Logistic , : , , 1 P ( t ) = - Kt ( 1) 1+ Ce , : CK , 1 d U( t) 1 dR ( t) , , P ( t) t U( t) dt R ( t) dt , : R