Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Case of China.ppt

Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Case of China Zhou Dadi Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission of China September 2003, Honolulu China is a developing country Per capita GDP is only about 1,000 US dollars Per capita commercial energy consumption is only 1 tce More than 60% people live in the rural area, living on the agriculture Need another 50 years to become a middle level developed country Comparison of urbanization rate Per capita living area in square meter Per capita car ownership Per capita steel production（in kg/person） Per capita commercial primary energy consumption（1999 in Toe） Primary energy structure Social economic development, the highest priority Economic development is and will be the dominant social target; To be a middle level developed country by the middle of this century; High economic growth rate is expected, needed, and possible for longer period; Long process of industrialization Industrialization is still the main course of economic and social development for decades Manufacture industry will keep increase Urbanization will be speed up, with more than 1% population moving into cities each year Need more job for young and farmers, 10 million new positions needed annually Infrastructure construction is far from completed Energy consumption and GHG emission will increase for many years Total energy consumption of China will be doubled or increase even more in the next 20 years Per capita energy consumption will close to the world average by 2020 Per capita GHG emission still much lower than that from developed countries What is needed for developing countries to climate change Still UNFCCC and KP Post Kyoto is too early Legal binding for developing countries is not acceptable and will not work Technical alternatives is necessary and helpful New pattern of development needs to be created The result of action in developed countries is determinant Developing countries will follow the best model if avail