What’s happening to China’s GDP statistics,China Economic Review.pdfVIP

China Economic Review 12 (2001) 347–354 What is happening to China’s GDP statistics? Thomas G. RAWSKI* Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA Abstract This paper argues that official Chinese statistics contain major exaggerations of real output growth beginning in 1998. The standard data contain numerous inconsistencies. Chinese commentaries castigate widespread falsification at lower levels and question the authenticity of figures emanating from the central statistical authorities. The author speculates that cumulative GDP growth during 1997/ 2001 was no more than one-third of official claims, and possibly much smaller. D 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: China; Growth; Falsification; Statistics 1. Introduction During a May 2001 conversation with several Chinese economists in Beijing, I expressed doubt that China’s recent GDP statistics reflect actual economic performance. Without missing a beat, a Chinese colleague said, ‘‘Nobody believes recent GDP statistics.’’ According to the New York Times, ‘‘many economists say the country’s real economic growth rate is, at most, half of that reported’’ (Smith, 2001). What is going on? I believe that, beginning with 1998, standard GDP data contain exaggerations that extend far beyond the technical difficulties addressed in recent studies (e.g., Maddison, 1998; Meng Wang, 2000; Ren, 1997). This comment focuses on three matters: quantitative inconsistencies, qualitative information from Chinese commentaries, and suggestions about the possible magnitude of overstatement. * Tel.: +1-412-648-7062; fax: +1-412-648-1793. E-mail address : tgrawski@ (T.G. Rawski). 1043-951X/02/$ – see fron