基于AHP_SLIM的施工中人为失误概率的确定.pdfVIP

26 1 建 筑 科 学 Vol26, No1 2010 1 BUILDING SCIENCE Jan. 2010 [] 2010) AHPSLIM 周 冲, 寇新建(上海交通大学 船舶海洋与建筑工程学院, 上海 200240) [ ] ,, , (A P) ( SLIM) [] ; ; ;; [] TU712 [] A TheMethod ofEstmi ating Builder Error Probabilities Based onA PSLIM ZH OU Chong, K OU X inj ian (S chool of N avalA rchitecture, Ocean and Civ il Eng ineer ing Shanghai J iao Tong un iver ity, Shangha i 200240, Ch ina) [ A bstract] Structural reliability is affected by many of uncertain factors which come from different sources. In addition to these random deviations, uman error is themost mi portant factor influencing structuralsafety. Large numbersof facts have shown that struc tural failuresmay be caused by the gross errors due to the human error. So it is mi portant to estmi ate the human error probability ( EP) in construction. In recent tmi es there aremore qualitative analysis and less quantitative analysis in thehuman error because of its complexity. The method for estmi ating the human error probability, namely A PSLIM is introduced in this paper. The type of EP estmi ation uses an analytic hierarchy process, which quantifies the subjective judgment and confirms the consistency of collected data. Themethod also uses the process of expert judgmentw ithin the success likelihood indexmethod ( SLIM). [ K eyw ord s] A P; SLIM; human error; reliability; EA 1 , , , : , , [ 710] [ 12] , :(Naturali