BULLWHIP EFFECT AND SUPPLY CHAIN MODELLING AND ANALYSIS USING CPN TOOLS.pdfVIP

BULLWHIP EFFECT AND SUPPLY CHAIN MODELLING AND ANALYSIS USING CPN TOOLS Dragana Makaji?-Nikoli?, Biljana Pani?, Mirko Vujo?evi? Operations Research Laboratory ?Jovan Petric?, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade gis@fon.bg.ac.yu, bilja@fon.bg.ac.yu, mirkov@fon.bg.ac.yu Abstract. The paper presents some of the results obtained by studying Petri nets’ capability for modeling and analysis of Supply Chain performances. It is well known that the absence of coordination in Supply Chain management causes the so-called Bullwhip Effect, in which fluctuations in orders increase as they move up the chain. A simple three-stage supply chain with one player at each stage – a retailer, a wholesaler and a manufacturer – is considered. The model of the chain is developed using a timed, hierarchical coloured Petri Net. Simulation and performance analysis have been performed applying software package CPN Tools. 1. INTRODUCTION A Supply Chain SC includes all the participants and processes involved in the satisfaction of customer demand: transportation, storages, retailers, wholesalers, distributors and factories. A large number of participants, a variety of relations and processes, dynamics, the uncertainty and stochastics in material and information flow, and numerous managerial positions prove that Supply Chains should be considered as a complex system in which coordination is one of the key elements of management. Very important Supply Chain processes are ordering and delivery of purchased amounts. These are multiple entangled and their disorder can lead to various unwanted effects. One of them is the so-called Bullwhip Effect in which fluctuations in orders increase as they move up the chain. In order to illustrate the SC functioning and particularly the bullwhip effect, Beer Game [10]