《Eng张 杰》.pdfVIP

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences ? RESEARCH PAPER ? February 2010 Vol.53 No.2: 173–180 doi: 10.1007/s11430-009-0199-4 Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization: A case in Beijing metropolitan area 1,2* 2 3 4 1 ZHANG Jie , ZHOU YinKang , LI RenQiang , ZHOU ZhaoJun , ZHANG LiQuan , SHI QingDong5 PAN XiaoLing5 1 State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China; 2 College of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China; 3 Research Center for Ecosystem Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 4 Xinjiang Polytechnic College, Urumqi 830091, China; 5 Institute of Arid Ecology Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China Received August 22, 2008; accepted June 1, 2009; published online December 28, 2009 Spatially explicit modeling plays a vital role in land use/cover change and urbanization research as well as resources manage- ment; however, current models lack proper validation and fail to incorporate uncertainty into the formulation of model predic- tions. Consequently, policy makers and the general public may develop opinions based on potentially misleading research, which fails to allow for truly informed decisions. Here we use an uncertainty strategy of spatially explicit modeling combined with the series statistic of Kappa index for location and quantity to estimate the uncertainty of future predications and to de- termine model accuracy. We take the Beijing metropolitan area as an example to demonstrate the uncertainty in extrapolations of predictive land use change and urban sprawl with spatially explicit modeling at multiple resolutions. The sensitivity of scale effects is also discussed. The results show that an improvement in specification of location is more helpful in in