鄱阳湖流域经济发展和氮, 磷减排调控关系的均衡分析.doc

中国环境科学 2010,30(Suppl.)：92~96  China  Environmental Science  鄱阳湖流域经济发展与氮、磷减排调控关系的均衡分析  邓祥征 1*,吴  锋 1,席北斗 2,何连生 2,刘鸿亮 2 (1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101；2.中国环 境科学研究院,北京 100012) 摘要：以鄱阳湖流域为研究对象,构建了区域经济发展与氮、磷减排调控多区域均衡分析模型,基于我国 2002 年投入产出表,并结合贸 易、人口等统计数据,采用中国省际贸易矩阵,探讨了江西省不同产业实施的氮、磷减排策略对各地区经济发展的影响.结果表明,江西 省部分氮、磷高排放部门实施的减排调控对全国其他省经济的影响相对较小.环境科研与管理投入在鄱阳湖流域氮、磷营养盐减排中 处于重要位置. 关键词：湖泊富营养化；均衡分析模型；贸易矩阵；鄱阳湖流域 中图分类号：X321 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2010)S0-0092-05  Emission control strategies for nitrogen and phosphorus in the Poyang Lake Watershed based on computable general equilibrium model. DENG Xiang-zheng1*, WU Feng1, XI Bei-dou2, HE Lian-sheng2, LIU Hong-liang2 (1.Institute of Geographic and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China； 2.Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Science, Beijing 100012, China). China Environmental Science, 2010,30(Suppl.)：92~96 Abstract：Lake eutrophication as a result of economic growth, has become one of the most serious environment problems. This paper aims to explore the decision making information for coordinating economic growth and the reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions in the Poyang Lake Watershed. An Environmental Computable General Equilibrium (ECGE) model based on the theory of mathematical optimization solution is introduced in this paper. On the basis of the 2008 provincial statistic data from yearbooks, an input-output table were created with indispensable parameters for this study. Following this, an inter-regional trade matrix was built to describe the regional trade and emissions among provinces. the coupled relationship between economic growth and emission reduction were explored and illustrated by applying the ECGE model. According to the estimates, a couple of strategies and one scenario for reducing the emission of nitrogen and phosphorus from those sectors with high emissions were identified. In addition, investment in scientific research and management also plays an importa