International Strategy and Security in 2011.pdfVIP

GaoZugui InternationalStrategyandSecurityin2011 GaoZugui’ Abstract：TheworldeconomicrecoveryiSstilIfraughtwithmultiplerisks． Politica1．economicand sociaItransformationsatthe globallevel，and changes in patterns of internationaIrelations willrequire short- and mid．term strategicreadjustmentsbythemajorpowers．Competitionand cooperationbetweenthemajorpowersare tendingtobecomemore complicated and unpredictable．InternationaIsecurity cooperation iS becomingmorecomprehensiveandcomplex．Powerrestructuring inthe Asia—PacificregioniSnow attractingparticularattention．Developmentsin theseareasare increasinglyaffectedbythe “Chinafactor,”pushingthe interactionbetweenChinaandtherestoftheworldtoacriticaIstage． O11ushersintheseconddecadeofhte21stcenturywithhteworld 厶 enteringa “post—crisisera”dominatedbythepolitical，socialand economicramificationsoftheglobalfinancialmeltdown． 1．Despite the trend ofworld economic recovery,many risks remain． Onhtewhole，theworldhascomethroughtheworstofhteglobal economiccrisis，withmoderaterecovery becomingan increasinglyclear trend．TheIMFhasprojected4．2％growthforhteglobaleconomyin2011． Yettheglobaleconomicstructurewillremain imbalancedbetweenhte NorthandtheSouth．withgrowthweakerintheformerthanthelatter． Thedevelopedeconomiesareprojectedtopostagrowthrateof2．2％ in2011，whilehteemerginganddevelopingeconomiesareexpectedto achieve growth of 6．4％．Burdened by high deficits，inflation and unemployment．growth in thedeveloped economieswillberelatively Dr．GaoZuguiisProfessorandDirectoroftheInstituteofW orldPoliticalSutdies， ChinaInstiuttesofContemporaryInternationalRelations． 34 C V01．21No．1 InternationalStrategyandSecurityin2011 weak．CountriessuchasPortugal，ItalyandHungaryareseentobelikely tofollow Irelandintoasovereigndebtcrisis．Ifthecrisisspillsoverinto othermemberstates．theoveralleconomy