WP6-Synthesis.docVIP

WP 6 - Synthesis Milestone Report 6.5 Cross-Cutting 2: Uncertainties of Models Monitoring Carlos Borrego, Ana Isabel Miranda, Ana Margarida Costa, Alexandra Monteiro, Joana Ferreira, Helena Martins, Oxana Tchepel, Ana Cristina Carvalho Department of Environment and Planning University of Aveiro July 2006 Executive Summary A brief description on the state of the art concerning the different methods available to estimate monitoring and modelling uncertainties is presented. A discussion is made on the consistency and level of applicability of the Air Quality Framework Directive concerning Monitoring and Model Quality Objectives. The requirements defined by the EU Regulatory Monitoring, EUROAIRNET, EMEP and WMO/GAW programmes for uncertainty monitoring estimation (Data Quality Objectives – DQO) are compared and discussed in this study. The analysis shows that EU Directive DQOs are set with a view to the practical measurement accuracy achievable in the field with typical present-day procedures. The proposed EUROAIRNET DQOs are stricter than those defined by the EU Directive. Also, the main basis for the EMEP DQOs is to provide measurements to control modelling results, A systematic description of the modelling uncertainty analysis methodologies, based on bibliography review, was performed and discussed. Examples of air quality modelling uncertainty estimation at local and regional scales were presented taking into account the review of the current existent scientific and legislated methodologies. The statistical analysis suggested to evaluate model performance and to estimate uncertainties comprises a set of parameters, giving information about the ability of the model to predict the tendency of observed values, errors on the simulation of average and peak observed concentrations, and type of errors (systematic or unsystematic). From the application exercise, it was concluded that despite all parameters are important, it is possible to define a subset of parameters