基于输入随机变量离散数据的概率潮流计算方法.pdfVIP

第37 卷 第9 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 37 No. 9 2013 年9 月 Power System Technology Sep. 2013 文章编号：1000-3673 （2013 ）09-2474-06 中图分类号：TM 74 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·4054 基于输入随机变量离散数据的概率潮流计算方法 蔡德福，石东源，李高望，陈金富 （强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室(华中科技大学) ，湖北省 武汉市 430074 ） A Probabilistic Load Flow Calculation Method Based on Discrete Data of Input Random Variable CAI Defu, SHI Dongyuan, LI Gaowang, CHEN Jinfu (State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology (Huazhong University of Science and Technology), Wuhan 430074, Hubei Province, China) ABSTRACT: Based on measured discrete data the output 好的优点，具有较好的工程实用价值。 characteristics of wind farm is researched, and the contrastive 关键词：风电场出力；概率潮流；拉丁超立方采样；蒙特卡 analysis on accuracies of traditional modeling methods for 罗仿真法 wind farm output is performed. In allusion to the situation that in existing Latin hypercube sampling based Monte Carlo 0 引言 simulation method the cumulative distribution function should be known, a probabilistic power flow calculation method based 实际电力系统运行中存在大量不确定性因素， on discrete data of input random variable is proposed. On the 如负荷功率波动、系统元件故障等。风电的大规模 basis of results of Monte Carlo simulation based on simple 并网更是加剧了系统的不确定性。概率潮流 random sampling, the effectiveness of the proposed method is (probabilistic load flow，PLF)计算能够考虑各种不 validated by IEEE 57-bus system connected with a wind farm. 确定性因素对系统稳态运行的影响，进而综合全面 Simulation results show tha