forecasting safe or dangerous space weather from hmi.pptVIP

* Real-Time CME Forecasting Using HMI Active-Region Magnetograms and Flare History David Falconer, Abdulnasser F. Barghouty, Igor Khazanov, and Ron Moore Forecasting X-class, M-class, CMEs, and SPEs from active region magnetograms using previous flare activity 2011 October MURI Meeting * Relation between size and twist of an active region’s magnetic field with free energy: Free Magnetic Twist Size Energy + - + - More Less ~(Twist x Size) * MSFC Vector Magnetogram of a very Nonpotential Active Region: 25,000 km Observed-field upward (downward) vert. comp. is shown by solid contours or light shading (dashed contours or dark shading); red arrows show observed hor. comp. ; green arrows show hor. comp. of pot. field computed from obs. vert. comp. ; strong-observed-field (150G) intervals of neutral lines are blue. An active-region field’s horizontal shear is concentrated along neutral lines where the field’s horizontal component is strong and the vertical component’s horizontal gradient is steep Observed Horizontal Field Potential Horizontal Field WLSG Magnetic Measures Φ * Active-Region Magnetic Measures Vector measures (SDO/HMI) Magnetic Size Φ=∫|Bz| da (|Bz| 100G) Free Magnetic Energy Proxy WLSG= ∫(?Bz) dl (potential Bh150G) Where Bz is the vertical field and Bh is the horizontal field. In the line-of-sight approximation (SOHO/MDI) Bz is replaced by the line-of-sight field and Bh is replaced by the potential transverse field which is calculated from the line-of-sight field Only Big Twisted Active Regions Produce CMEs Proxy of Active-Region Magnetic Free Energy * Produced CMEs in 24 hours * No CMEs in 24 hours A Productive Active Region has: Large amount of free energy Large magnetic size Large magnetic twist Similar tendencies for production of X and M flares