Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from.pdfVIP

PLoS MEDICINE Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030 * Colin D. Mathers , Dejan Loncar Evidence and Information for Policy Cluster, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland Funding: Financial support for this A B S T R A C T project was provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion and the WHO Background Commission on Intellectual Property Rights, Innovation and Public Health. Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years The funders had no role in study 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely of the manuscript. quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially under­ estimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority interests exist. setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting Academic Editor: Jon Samet, Johns from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This Hopkins School of Public Health, paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. United States of America Citation: Mat